Climate Change and The Carbon Cycle: What are the consequences of burning fossil fuels?

Because additional carbon has a profound effect in the atmosphere, we must predict how much of an impact our ever increasing consumption of fossil fuels will have.

Carbon dioxides role and influence in relation to long term weather is vital for modeling climate change. Models can help us identify how humans impact the environment. Influences that can stimulate climate change are not entirely natural. The earths systems are also heavily influenced by anthropogenic functions. Changes in temperature, precipitation and other climate variables contribute to the rate in which carbon cycles through reservoirs. Nearly all biological, chemical, and physical processes are responsible for exchange of carbon reservoirs in the land, ocean, and atmosphere. Earths systems are highly interconnected and any single change in one component of the climate system can disrupt equilibrium.

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We make everyday choices that impact our environment. These choices, either positive or negative, can have consequences that alter our shared planet. Environmental policies begin with societys interest in protecting itself currently, and for future generations. We must first address why understanding climate change is important. Concern for these complex processes reflects our behavior and desire to create and change policy. From weather and climate trends, we know that a problem exists and must be addressed. Over the past 50 years, U.S average temperature has risen by more than 2 F. The 2009 report requested by the U.S Federal Government, Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, indicates global temperature in the past century has risen by about 1.5 F. It also warns that temperature is projected to rise another 2 to 11 F. Research from the IPCC shows that another 2 F increase would lead to severe, widespread, and irreversible impacts. These facts raise concern of politicians and the public.

The impacts of climate change vary from region to region, but every aspect of humanity is affected including income & economic prosperity, human and environmental health, and even national security. Some climate models show the dire importance of reducing or at best stabilizing carbon emissions. Reducing alone would change the pace of climate change significantly. Scenarios of Future Carbon Dioxide Global Emissions and Concentrations, shows three IPCC scenarios, see image at bottom of page. The Green line shows stabilization at 450 PPM, 70 PPM above 2008 concentrations of about 380. A stabilization of around 450ppm shows a potential to keep global temperature around 2F higher than currently, but still at levels high enough for concern.

While water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas, it's highly variable; a product of temperature and energy exchange resulting in cloud cover. This is extremely important, but carbon dioxide in relative abundance has a greater impact on trapping outgoing long wave heat energy radiating from the earth surface. Carbon Dioxide emissions unlike water are not short lived in the atmosphere. Global surface warming caused by human induced carbon dioxide concentrations will increase atmospheric water vapor. Due to thermal expansion, the space in between the air particles separate. When there is more space, the ability for air parcels to hold water increases. This process creates what is known as a feedback loop. This feedback loop ultimately results in warming to occur. Part of the problem lies with humans burning fossil fuels. We are adding about 6 Gigatons of unbalanced CO2 a year, which is trapping heat, in-turn contributing to the global temperature increase.

Since 1850, the beginning of the industrial revolution, there has been about 300 Gt/C (Gigatons of Carbon) released from fossil-fuel combustion, natural gas glaring, and cement manufacturing. Clearing of forests since this time has added another 160 Gt. These processes combined have lead to an atmospheric increase of CO2 by 31%, from 287ppm in 1850 to 380ppm, according to The First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR). The carbon cycle is dominated by two fluxes of annual uptake and release that are closely balanced. The Terrestrial biome fixes about 100-200 Gt/y (Gigatons of Carbon per year) of carbon dioxide due to photosynthesis, allowing plants to grow. Plants fix around 20 times the amount of global carbon due to fossil fuel burning (fossil fuels burning releases about 6 Gt/y). Respiration by land plants returns some of it to the atmosphere, but this is closely balanced by the difference released by burning in wildfires and some as plant biomass. The ocean carbon cycle takes in about 100 GtC/y from the atmosphere and around another 100 GtC/y moves from the oceans back to the atmosphere, balancing the cycle.

During the 20th century, the average surface temperature increased by about .6 C. This is a seemingly small change; however CO2 emissions represent a steep increase in rate of temperature change during the past 10,000 years. Even such a seemingly small change can have impacts we are now beginning to recognize. Until recently, natural changes alone cannot account for the shift we are experiencing.

Global Effects

Sea Rise

Creating the earths climate system is the sun. Some of the sunlight entering the atmosphere reaches the ground, which in turn heats the atmosphere. Some sunlight is also reflected back to space by clouds, surfaces or ice. The Albedo of a surface determines just how much radiation is reflected back. Ice for example will have a higher albedo, therefore reflect more radiation. It is important to understand that carbon dioxide is actually trapping the heat trying to escape the upper reaches of the atmosphere, but is retained by molecular interaction with CO2. The ability for CO2, among other gases is crucial for life on earth. If it we're not for this effect, the earth would be a much colder place (about 60 F colder), unable to support life as we know it, according to Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Science.

From analysis of air bubbles trapped in Antarctic ice cores from around 800,000 years ago, we can get a picture of what atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations must have been like. They tend to vary from about 170 ppm 300ppm. Since the industrial revolution we have an average of about 30% higher levels, around 380ppm CO2 atmospheric concentration. Without human desire to arrest these elevated levels, and intent to mitigate future emissions, we could see a rise of 2 to 3 times the current elevated levels by 2100.

Adding to the climate change debate, we know for a fact that sea level is rising. Sea level changed very little over the past 2000 years. Satellite data shows us that a sudden increase of around 8 inches occurred over the past century. Ice sheets are currently decreasing at high levels due to seasonal melt in the past decade alone. Nearing the end of the century, sea levels could rise by as much as 2 feet. If the entire Greenland Ice Sheet melted, it would raise sea level by about 20 feet, from Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States.

Climate change has a profound impact, capable of extensive melting of ice sheets and glaciers. One such impact is increased seasonal melt of arctic ice. The melted ice, adds warmer water, inducing the thermal expansion of seawater. Heated waters will take more space than condensed, colder water. Seawater will eventually continue to rise so that coastal fresh water is contaminated with salt water.

Ocean Acidification

Ocean water chemistry changes as levels of carbon dioxide fluctuate. The oceans ability & limitation to sequester and store carbon is not well understood. As the ocean takes in more carbon dioxide, the water increase in acidity, and becomes more alkaline. Ocean acidification is a process which affects the pH of sea water, slowly decreasing it. pH has decreased significantly since 1750. It is projected that it will continue to drop as the ocean continually absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere. As the ocean takes up CO2, we must consider the harmful impacts on living organisms. From biota in the ocean, to eventually humans; we can all be impacted by a potential lack of food resources. The decreased level of pH affects calcification, a process of living creatures making shells. Among the biota impacted are species including molluscs, coral reefs, and plankton species that build shells from carbon and calcium ions. Because they are an important food source, the food chain is at risk.

Changes in precipitation patterns

Precipitation patterns and temperature will affect how water much water is available and distributed. There will be too little water in some places and too much water in others with increasing degradation of water quality.

Precipitation is projected to increase in severity and frequency. In some areas drought will be the dominating force in severe weather and in others heavy rainfall will dominate the weather extremes. Higher latitudes are modeled to show higher rainfall. The areas near the equator, outside the tropics that are described as seasonally dry will continue to grow, and less precipitation will continue to dominate the region. The tropics however will increase in seasonal precipitation intensity, and decrease in frequency. Severe weather like monsoons will become more intense, yet less frequent in these regions.

Due to the results of IPCC climate models, climate change scientists are looking at anthropogenic changes that are most likely increasing the rate of carbon release. Human activities are most likely responsible for climate change. Burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) and widespread deforestation have been among the primary drivers of anthropogenic climate change. In 2007, the Fourth Assessment, International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified a very high confidence that the global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been on of warming. The IPCC also stated that studies to detect climate change and attribute it's causes using patterns of observed temperature change in space and time show a clear evidence of human influences on the climate system (due to changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols, and stratospheric ozone).

As a society, we are currently addressing this issue. However, these changes are gradual and citizens must be informed on their local and global impacts. Understanding the climate system gives people the opportunity to share knowledge with their community and engage in meaningful discussion about the consequences and practical approaches to a solution. We can reduce our vulnerability to impacts by making necessary changes to our policy and lifestyle.

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Posted in Health and Medical Post Date 11/01/2022